Total U.S. Aftermarket Forecast to Decline 8.8% But Expected to Rebound in 2021

The Joint Channel Forecast Model presented by the Auto Care Association and the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association detailed the automotive aftermarket’s current challenges but predicted a reprise in 2021.

RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, N.C. and Bethesda, Md. – June 5, 2020 –  Total U.S. automotive aftermarket sales are forecast to decrease 8.8 percent in 2020 as a result of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and related factors, according to the “2020 Joint Channel Forecast Model” produced jointly by the Auto Care Association and the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (AASA).

The 2020 Joint Channel Forecast Model also predicts that total light duty aftermarket sales will grow from $281 billion in 2020 to $314 billion in 2021.

“Despite the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Joint Channel Forecast shows that the continued strength and resilience of the automotive aftermarket will lead to a brighter 2021,” said Paul McCarthy, AASA president & COO. “Despite a year of immense challenges and uncertainty, the foundation of our industry’s key drivers remains strong. Miles driven continue to rise as global economies reopen, new technologies continue to emerge, and the desire to be with friends and family will propel further car usage. We are still facing a lot of challenges, but this forecast confirms the essential attractiveness of the aftermarket.  The aftermarket supplier community is continuing to work hard to try and support our customers and our essential industry, which, despite the crisis, remains a vibrant contributor to our economy.”

“The aftermarket has had a difficult first-half of 2020. As industry businesses assess the impact and look to navigate the road ahead, there are a few certainties that provide a silver lining: DIY and e-commerce are growing during the pandemic, and early indicators show that that the average age of vehicles on the road will continue to rise as consumers hold on to their aging vehicles during economic uncertainty,” said Bill Hanvey, president and CEO, Auto Care Association. “Juxtaposing the data surrounding this event with other crises and observing these indicators further reinforce this industry’s tremendous ability to bounce back from downturns and in many cases, take advantage of new opportunities presented to us through technology.”

The market sizing and forecast is conducted on behalf of the Auto Care Association and AASA by IHS Markit, a leading business intelligence firm. The forecast is based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s Economic Census, IMR Inc., and proprietary economic analysis and forecasting models from IHS Markit.

The Joint Channel Forecast Model is available in the Auto Care Association’s 2021 Auto Care Factbook at digital.autocare.org/2021factbook and at the AASA website, www.aftermarketsuppliers.org.