Posted by
Auto Care News
on
June 05, 2020
The Joint
Channel Forecast Model presented by the Auto Care Association and the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers
Association detailed the automotive aftermarket’s
current challenges but predicted a reprise in 2021.
RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, N.C. and Bethesda, Md. – June 5, 2020 – Total U.S. automotive aftermarket sales are
forecast to decrease 8.8 percent in 2020 as a result of the impact of the
COVID-19 pandemic and related factors, according to the “2020 Joint Channel
Forecast Model” produced jointly by the Auto Care Association and the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers
Association (AASA).
The 2020 Joint Channel Forecast
Model also predicts that total light duty aftermarket sales will grow
from $281 billion in 2020 to $314 billion in 2021.
“Despite the ongoing COVID-19
pandemic, the Joint Channel Forecast shows that the continued strength and
resilience of the automotive aftermarket will lead to a brighter 2021,” said Paul
McCarthy, AASA president & COO. “Despite a year of immense challenges and
uncertainty, the foundation of our industry’s key drivers remains strong. Miles
driven continue to rise as global economies reopen, new technologies continue
to emerge, and the desire to be with friends and family will propel further car
usage. We are still
facing a lot of challenges, but this forecast confirms the essential
attractiveness of the aftermarket. The aftermarket supplier community is
continuing to work hard to try and support our customers and our essential
industry, which, despite the crisis, remains a vibrant contributor to our
economy.”
“The aftermarket has had a difficult
first-half of 2020. As industry businesses assess the impact and look to
navigate the road ahead, there are a few certainties that provide a silver
lining: DIY and e-commerce are growing during the pandemic, and early
indicators show that that the average age of vehicles on the road will continue
to rise as consumers hold on to their aging vehicles during economic
uncertainty,” said Bill Hanvey, president and CEO, Auto Care Association. “Juxtaposing
the data surrounding this event with other crises and observing these
indicators further reinforce this industry’s tremendous ability to bounce back
from downturns and in many cases, take advantage of new opportunities presented
to us through technology.”
The market sizing and forecast
is conducted on behalf of the Auto Care Association and AASA by IHS Markit, a
leading business intelligence firm. The forecast is based on the U.S. Census
Bureau’s Economic Census, IMR Inc., and proprietary economic analysis and
forecasting models from IHS Markit.
The Joint Channel Forecast
Model is available in the Auto Care Association’s 2021 Auto Care Factbook at digital.autocare.org/2021factbook and at the AASA website, www.aftermarketsuppliers.org.