Joint Electrification Forecast

2025 Joint Powertrain Trends & Outlook Forecast

The Auto Care Association and MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers, in collaboration with Strategy&, the strategy division of PwC, commissioned the 2025 Joint Powertrain Trends and Outlook Forecast to provide members the most comprehensive look yet at the evolving landscape of the electric vehicle and hybrid aftermarket, capturing key shifts in consumer behavior, market share and technological development. The 2025 report addresses the significant changes in market conditions for EVs and provides updated data and forecasts to help aftermarket professionals prepare for what's ahead.

Free for members!

All employees of Auto Care Association member companies are provided with a digital copy of the 2025 Joint Powertrain Trends and Outlook Forecast at no cost as a benefit of their membership.

• While battery electric vehicle (BEV) adoption has plateaued in the U.S. (<10%) over the last two years, BEV sales in China have continued to grow, reaching 30% in H2 2025.
• Key factors driving BEV price reduction in China include the sharp drop in battery prices, widespread adoption of large format prismatic (LFP) cell chemistry for batteries, development of a robust public charging infrastructure, and comprehensive policy support spanning the entire EV value chain.
• Higher hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) adoption in the U.S. is expected in the near term due to favorable economics, growing model availability and independence from charging infrastructure.
• While HEVs have a higher initial selling price and higher insurance premiums, the increased fuel economy allows a breakeven point of 3-4 years based on average U.S. vehicle mileage patterns.
• The number of HEV models in North America is expected to nearly triple from 2024-2031 as vehicle manufacturers like Toyota, Hyundai and Kia introduce more HEV models.
• Combined, new BEV and HEV vehicle sales in the U.S. are expected to be twice that of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and account for one-quarter of the U.S. car parc in 2035.
• The U.S. parts market will continue to grow modestly over the next decade, driven primarily by increased part prices as complexity continues to grow; electrification and ADAS systems are expected to grow the most substantially during this period.