Global Vehicle Aftermarket Tops $2 Trillion in 2022

The global vehicle aftermarket is estimated at $2.33 trillion for 2022: $1.87 trillion for automotive (passenger vehicles and light duty vehicles, GVW 1-3) and $461.5 billion for medium/heavy duty vehicles (GVW 4-8). The estimate is based on a model created by Hanover Research and is anchored to S&P Global's Joint Channel Forecast Model for automotive vehicles and Auto Care's estimate of the medium/heavy duty market.

Hanover’s model to quantify the aftermarket is based on the following major variables:

• The number of passenger cars, light, medium and heavy-duty trucks in operation
• Vehicle miles traveled (to determine VMT for each weight class for medium/heavy duty vehicles, CO₂ emissions associated with road transport are used)
• Average marginal aftermarket costs per mile (in U.S. Dollars) for each vehicle class

This year’s model incorporates weighting factors for inflation, driving population (defined for ages 15 and above), and industry value add for each country of interest as these variables could influence the aftermarket spend in both the light and medium/heavy duty vehicle segments.

The top 30 countries are listed below:

These 30 countries account for $2.10 trillion of the aftermarket ($1.69 trillion light duty, $410.8 billion medium/heavy duty), 90.4% of the total $2.33 trillion global aftermarket.

The global automotive and medium-and-heavy duty aftermarket model estimates the amount of non-warranty spend by end consumers on parts, accessories and labor to service, maintain, and repair their vehicles.