Weather's Impact on the Auto Parts Business with NASA Meteorologist Rob Gutro

Stacey Miller: 0:13

Welcome to Auto Care ON AIR, a candid podcast for a curious industry. I'm Stacey Miller, Vice President of Communications at the Auto Care Association, and this is Traction Control, where we chat about recent news from the global to the local level and what it may mean to the industry, featuring guests on the front lines. Let's roll Welcome back to another edition of Traction Control. Today we're diving into a familiar yet evolving phenomenon ENSO or the El Nino Southern Oscillation, and what it may mean for auto parts businesses in the US. There's a lot of information and a lot of news coming out with the forecast for what's going to happen this winter, and that's of particular interest to the auto care industry because, of course, that's going to tell us how do we stock our parts and how do we respond to some weather events that maybe we might not be anticipating.

Stacey Miller: 1:05

So today with me in the studio I have my good friend, rob Guttro. He's a retired NASA meteorologist. He's got a ton of experience and, honestly, rob is the person that I call when I need a proper weather forecast, because I don't know. I just can't, you know. Every single time he gives me a forecast, it's perfect. I don't listen to the local news, I listen to Rob. So, rob, welcome to the studio. Hey, stacey.

Rob Gutro: 1:31

Good to be with you. Thanks for having me today.

Stacey Miller: 1:33

So glad to have you here and you have a ton of experience. Tell me a little bit about your history as a meteorologist, because it is extensive.

Rob Gutro: 1:41

Sure, well, I just retired from NASA, as you mentioned. 24 years I managed a hurricane page for NASA and that was covering tropical cyclones around the world 24-7. I used to update it even on vacation and weekends, so that was pretty cool, and it started the year that Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans, 2005. Before that, I worked at the Weather Channel. I was a broadcast meteorologist and I had my beginnings in Baltimore. I was one of the on-air broadcasters before the NOAA Weather Radio became automated, so I was one of the guys that was actually giving the forecast over and over again.

Stacey Miller: 2:26

Wow, that's incredible. So nearly 30 years of experience under your belt, particularly on inclement weather across the United States. So tell me, like on five, what is ENSO and what are El Nino and La Nina, because we're going to talk a little bit about why this is important.

Rob Gutro: 2:44

Sure. So ENSO, the El Nino Southern Oscillation is a reoccurring climate pattern and it changes over the course of several years. Now it's really a pool of water that we look at in the eastern Pacific and that changes from a big pool of warm water to a big pool of cold water. Now, when it's warm water, the big pool of warm water that's called El Nino, and when it's cold water that's La Nina. When there is no difference, really that is a neutral pattern and that's what we're looking at over the winter of 2025, 2026. So I can explain how that is going to affect things.

Stacey Miller: 3:32

Yeah, and there's a history of how they happen. They fluctuate. Every year we kind of get something different. Is there a pattern to how they happen or not so much.

Rob Gutro: 3:44

Usually one year will be like an El Nino year. Sometimes it will hang on for another year and then we've seen in the past that it transitions from El Nino to La Nina. This is the first time in 12 years that we are actually going to be in a neutral pattern with the ENSO, and that affects the way that the jet streams move across the US.

Stacey Miller: 4:07

So, but neutral to me sounds like okay, it's good, like we're going to have a mild winter, but of course I'm in Maryland, I'm on the eastern seaboard. Tell me a little bit about what neutral really means and how that could differ across different regions.

Rob Gutro: 4:21

Sure. So, looking at the US, it means that there's a southern jet and there is a northern jet, so if you think of two ribbons going across the US from east to west, that's the way it lines up. What that means is the colder air will, for the most part, stay to the north, and that means from Montana all the way to Maine, for instance, and it may be colder than normal or what we've experienced, especially last year, when it was warmer than normal. It also means that in the south, it's going to be warmer than normal and, in some places, wetter. One important aspect of this, though, is that wherever the jet stream is, that's where the storms are going to happen. The jet stream is like a ribbon of air where all the low-pressure areas follow them.

Stacey Miller: 5:10

So we really need to follow those forecasts to see where those jet streams are, to help us predict where we're going to get some of that inclement weather.

Rob Gutro: 5:19

Yes, and one of the things that has been suggested for this year is that there may be more Nor'easters in store. So for people who live in New England all the way actually from the Mid-Atlantic up to New England we may encounter some extra Nor'easters this year as a bonus. And that's not really a bonus. It's not for drivers.

Stacey Miller: 5:43

So that means more snow, more sleet, more rain, but more likely more snow and ice.

Rob Gutro: 5:50

Yeah, depending on what side of the low that we're on, inclement weather, especially along the northeast, and colder, snowier conditions anywhere. As I mentioned, from Montana to the Great Lakes area and especially upstate New York Looks like upstate New York the Buffalo area may see some good snow.

Stacey Miller: 6:17

So it feels like maybe no matter what region you're in, the weather that you may have been used to some time ago, it's getting a little bit more extreme. Would you say that?

Rob Gutro: 6:29

It definitely is getting more extreme. Yeah, that's a great observation At NASA. What we've noticed, using Earth satellites and different weather station data, is that we have noticed that the average global temperature has increased every single year and, as a matter of fact, in the last 10 years we've seen some of the warmest years ever in the last century, and that means that there's more moisture in the atmosphere, because a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture. That also means that there's going to be heavier precipitation, in whatever areas it falls.

Stacey Miller: 7:09

Oh gosh, All right, I'm not looking forward to the wet part of this. And then tell me about the South. So the South has been having some really weird weather. There was some time ago like a big snowstorm happened in Texas and no one was prepared for it. It was just completely off the map and it just it took all of us by surprise. So does this kind of neutral, this neutral winter, or this neutral forecast mean warmer and drier, or does it mean wetter or more extended? Tell me a little bit about that.

Rob Gutro: 7:45

So this neutral pattern means that the Southern Jet will be more prevalent along the South, and that means from Southern California all the way out to North Carolina, for instance. It'll be warmer. The wetter area will likely be found between the jet streams, so between the northern jet and between the southern jet, and that means anywhere from Kentucky all the way to Maryland if you will, got it so cold and snowy wet, and then warm, all right, and, of course, and then warm, all right.

Rob Gutro: 8:26

And of course there are exceptions. I mean we are still in hurricane season. Hurricane season doesn't end until November 30th, although we have seen hurricanes form at the end of November and go into December. So that's another thing, that right now in the neutral pattern. Neutral patterns don't typically affect the hurricanes. So El Nino's tend to mean less hurricane development because it means wind shear over the Atlantic and La Nina favors hurricane development. So we're still expecting an above average hurricane season.

Stacey Miller: 9:07

That was a perfect segue into my next question, which you just answered, because it seemed like we were getting more hurricanes in the South. I don't know how, the severity, like on the scale of like, are they getting more severe? Are they about the same? But it seems like that's also something really important to prepare for. It sounds like hurricane season is here and it's going to continue that way.

Rob Gutro: 9:31

I've noticed is that the intensity of hurricanes has increased. We've seen more Category 5 hurricanes in the last 20 years than ever before. Yeah, as a matter of fact, there's talk about making a Category 6 because they've been so powerful. Yeah, so right now Category 5 kind of ends at 155 miles an hour plus sustained winds. But they may up that, because there have been a couple of hurricanes that have had 200 mile an hour sustained winds. Oh my gosh.

Stacey Miller: 10:19

Yeah, that's absolutely, that's absolutely terrifying. And you know it's something to think about because we talk here on Traction Control about you know what's happening in the news. How can the auto industry face these challenges? You know, turn them into opportunities. But there's a lot of preparation that has to go into strategies for businesses who are not only just providing the parts for the cars, but if there is a disruption in freight because of flooding, or disruption in semi trucks that need to deliver goods because powers down roads are blocked, right Like those, are all really important parts of the transportation ecosystem that we have to keep running despite some of these natural disasters. So again, more to consider for these businesses despite some of these natural disasters.

Rob Gutro: 11:05

So again, more to consider for these businesses and I do want to address the auto industry too is that because of these kinds of extremes, it's important to have really good tires with good traction? Yeah, especially because whenever there are rain events that are extreme maybe a couple of inches within 24 hours and we just had one in Maine with two inches in 24 hours After six weeks of no rain. That causes a lot of hydroplaning and, of course, a lot of accidents have happened. The other thing that I noticed too, just as as a layman not associated with the auto industry but people do not have the proper windshield wipers or they don't replace them enough.

Stacey Miller: 12:25

No kidding, no kidding. You know, thanks to tariffs, the increasing cost of the vehicle are down, which is a good thing for not only the used vehicle market, but it's good for the cars that are currently on the road. Right, the truck that you drive, the car that I drive keeping those properly. Maintenance is really important for drivers right now, for safety, as the average age of those vehicles is rising, they're keeping them longer instead of going out and buying a new car. So those small maintenance items right, we're talking a set of tires, a set of good tires, right, Winter tires, if you're going to get that inclement weather windshield wipers, you know, headlights all of these things are super important to keeping your car running safely throughout these type of weather events and keeping everybody on the road, getting them where they need to go. So I appreciate that observation.

Rob Gutro: 13:12

One thing I wanted to mention too about last winter don't expect last winter, this winter, to be like last winter. This is going to be a completely different story. And also this winter, because we're going to be in a neutral pattern, we may see some more fluctuations, more extreme fluctuations. So you know it's really although I don't like to say this it's hard to count on a winter being a certain way, especially when you're in a neutral pattern, because you can have outbreaks of cold that go far south and you can have outbreaks of warmth that go all the way up to northern new england, for instance. So really I urge everybody to pay attention to your forecasts and that way you'll know in two days whether or not you have to take extra time going to work and again check those tire treads. I can't that enough. And do not drive through flooded roadways, please. Flooding causes more weather-related deaths than anything.

Stacey Miller: 14:21

Wow, I didn't know that.

Rob Gutro: 14:22

Yeah, more than hurricanes, more than lightning. Wow yeah, flooding is responsible for that.

Stacey Miller: 14:31

Wow, that's a really good fact. It's going to make me make sure I have my tires right for the winter, as we're starting to get chillier down here in Maryland. So I want to recap a little bit, because I think it's really important to talk about some of the different part types that companies should be looking at. We're talking about weather which, to one sense, is a little predictable. We have fantastic meteorologists and experts like yourself who say, hey, here's what could happen based on what we've seen. But in the end it can be a little unpredictable. Right, say it's going to rain this day, it may not, it may be a flood.

Stacey Miller: 15:08

I think the key to what is happening right now with the weather is to be prepared. We've seen a lot of black swan events across the aftermarket, from COVID to, you know, the canal getting stopped up and we couldn't get goods on the ships to now tariffs. So the moral of the story is being prepared ahead of time for these events. You know we're not going to anticipate exactly what's going to happen, but making sure that your business strategy is ahead of the curve. So if we're talking about a neutral winter for cold climates in the northern United States, think about batteries. You know what is your battery stock? Look like on those shelves Wiper blades, as Rob said, antif Any freeze if it's going to be colder, right, there's going to be a lot of demand for any freeze. Heating components, making sure that vehicle heaters are working properly to keep people comfortable while they're driving in those sub-zero temperatures. And then tires and tire traction accessories as people prepare for that colder, snowier weather.

Stacey Miller: 16:09

Now, if we're talking about the Pacific Northwest, the total opposite side of the US, that's going to be our wet weather zone, right. So again, wipers, roof racks, rain guards, water-resistant floor mats. There's so many opportunities for parts and accessories that not only keep people safe, keep our drivers safe, but keep them a little bit more comfortable in the event of inclement weather. And don't forget that moisture slush that can lead to more frequent brake pad replacements. Wow, can't get those words together. And then your dry and your warm southern areas. If in fact, we have a dry and a warm southern winter, you know there's reduced winter wear, but this heightened hurricane risk that Rob has been talking about, that could imply a spike in headlights, windshield replacements, air filters are going to be really important for air quality, brake pads and even minor collision parts, especially if storms increase, brake pads and even minor collision parts, especially if storms increase. So these are all really important to think about when you're talking about your sourcing strategy through the winter.

Rob Gutro: 17:18

I have two things, two other suggestions that I would like to add.

Rob Gutro: 17:22

One is to have a first aid kit in your car yes, because you never know when you're going to use it. And the other one, you never know when you're going to use it. And the other one, uh, maybe a reflector or, um, uh, flares, uh, because if you're pulling over during inclement weather, you need to be able to make sure that oncoming traffic is going to be able to see you. And, um, you know, I, I know I don't even have a reflector in my my truck, but I know I need to get one, um, but those are important things.

Rob Gutro: 17:54

Also, one other thing about getting back to the climate pattern is that there is a chance that we may be going into a La Nina by the end of the winter, and that means wetter conditions in the Pacific Northwest, the cold air coming down into the north and central US, and then the south continues to be warm and dry. So those are all important aspects of what may happen after we go from a neutral pattern, and I think that's going to happen. If it does become La Nina, it would become La Nina toward the end of the wintertime.

Stacey Miller: 18:34

Okay, and that fluctuation, I think, is also important to note because the winters fluctuate, so now the winter could get a little worse is what it seems like and even if it's a weak La Nina, right, that could disrupt the supply chain because the demand is going to be really different across those regions. That could be a challenge for parts distributors. So managing your inventory is extremely important, especially on tops of tariffs, and forecasting those demands. Now I love what you said about the emergency road kit and the flares and the reflector and the first aid kit, because those are excellent accessories that a lot of automotive retailers sell, right Like you could walk into an AutoZone or an O'Reilly or an Advance and get one of those. So those might be things that companies should be thinking about as we are forecasting more inclement weather this winter.

Stacey Miller: 19:28

So some really big takeaways, I think, from this awesome session with Rob is that region specific inventory planning is essential. So your cold weather parts up north, your water resistant gear in the southeast, emergency kits and replacement parts, even collision parts down south, are going to be important. Remaining flexible and quick restocking in your supply chain. If you have localized warehousing, that's going to help adapt some of those demand shifts and marketing right. This is my kind of favorite part about it. I don't love talking about capitalizing on what could be potentially a severe event or a life threatening event, but I think there's something really important in utilizing some marketing savvy that's timely, aligned with those weather forecasts, to help prepare drivers to ensure that they're safe on the road, keep them prepared for cold snaps, make sure they're not stranded in the rain and flooding. That could really help move the needle for your brand. So really really exciting and timely advice here.

Rob Gutro: 20:32

And one other thing I just thought of, too, is that for the folks that are in the Northern tier of the country, we could probably get some pretty good snows during this neutral phase. So having a fold up shovel will probably be helpful, and maybe some. Do you recommend kitty litter or something for traction, something to melt ice? Yeah yeah. So those are two things that just came to mind. I've seen a number of cars get stuck.

Stacey Miller: 21:00

Those are big essentials and it's funny, you know, as a driver I put myself, you know I think a lot about the industry. Every time I get into my car I'm traveling somewhere and you know, the one time that I need an ice melt or some kitty litter, I can never find it, but my local auto retail store does always have it. So you know, if you're an auto retail, you know obviously that's a given, you know what you're doing there. But you know we have home improvement stores, we have grocery stores, we have convenience stores that are also in the industry because they provide some of those automotive parts and accessories and making sure that those are stocked at the front of the store and you're forecasting that demand is also going to be really important to getting your customers and your drivers back on the road safely.

Rob Gutro: 21:43

And make sure you wipe all the snow off of your roof, because it will adversely affect the vision of the driver behind you and that could cause an accident too. I know it's actually illegal to drive with snow on your roof in some states.

Stacey Miller: 21:58

Yeah, it could break a windshield if it flies off and hits the car behind you. Right? Lots of considerations. So these safety tips, I think, for consumers, are really important. Knowing what to expect, even though it's the unexpected, is going to be really important too For AutoCare members. We have a great tool called TrendLens which actually monitors over 50 economic and industry indicators to help you forecast what's going to happen and then forecast demand for your parts. So we track everything from average temperature, temperature deviation to even cooling degree days, and these can help you forecast demand for parts based on what's been happening. So, rob, can you explain a little bit about what cooling degree days means?

Rob Gutro: 22:46

Sure, it's always been kind of a confusing topic, but it measures the amount of energy needed to cool a building or a car by calculating the difference between the high temperature and the low temperature, and you have to get to that baseline of 65. So, for instance, if your low temperature is warmer than normal and your daytime temperature is warmer than normal, like 100 degrees, you're going to have cooling degree days needed. It's basically you take the two and you divide them to get the mean and then subtract 65. If the result is negative, it's recorded as zero cooling degree days. And same thing for warming degree days in the wintertime.

Stacey Miller: 23:33

That's amazing and we provide that data regionally. So if looking at weather is not a part of your strategy, it should be, and TrendLens is one of those tools that you can help. You can check that out at autocareorg slash TrendLens. So, to sum it up, some of the most successful auto parts businesses are obviously anticipating some of these shifts regionally, looking at this weather really closely, stocking the appropriate inventory and remaining agile, because even mild seasonal shifts can make waves. So I want to thank again meteorologist Rob Guchow for bringing some of your expertise to the Auto Care On Air podcast. Thank you, Rob.

Rob Gutro: 24:12

Thank you, stacey, good to be here.

Stacey Miller: 24:14

Thanks for tuning in to another episode of Auto Care On Air. Make sure to subscribe to our podcast so that you never miss an episode, and don't forget to leave us a rating and review that helps others discover our content. Auto Care On Air is a production of the Auto Care Association, dedicated to advancing the auto care industry and supporting professionals like you. To learn more about the association and its initiatives, visit autocareorg.