Risk and Roads: The Data Behind Your Insurance Rates
Transcript
Mike Chung:
Welcome to AutoCare OnAir, a candid podcast for a curious industry. I'm Mike Chung, senior Director of Market Intelligence at the AutoCare Association, and this is Indicators, where we identify and explore data that will help you monitor and forecast industry performance. This includes global economic data, industry indicators and new data that will help you monitor and forecast industry performance. This includes global economic data, industry indicators and new data sources. Hello and welcome to another edition of Indicators, one of the episodes of the AutoCare OnAir podcast. I'm Mike Chung, senior Director of Market Intelligence, and I'm very excited to have Michelle Leonard join me today. Michel is the chief economist and data scientist at the Insurance Information Institute, also known as III Michel. Welcome to the program.
MIchel Leonard:Thank you so much. It's a pleasure to be here. Can't wait to talk about all of this.
Mike Chung:Yeah, and I've had the pleasure of meeting you and some of your team and, for the benefit of our audience, could you tell us a little bit about yourself, what you do at III and what III does?
MIchel Leonard:Absolutely. We also go by III, so it's IIIorg and III. That says that how long we've been around. We've been around for 60 years. We are a trade, an industry, insurance industry, supported, nonpartisan, non-lobbying research and education. So I often say that there are a few institutes that have been created by the insurance industry. We are the research and education. One is about building codes and the other one actually is the most, I would say, widely known. They are the ones who test cars, so they kind of invented the dummies, are the ones who test cars, so they kind of invented the dummies and they've had a great impact on that. It's the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety and they're based in Charlottesville and, if your audience hasn't been there, it's a fascinating place and it's just incredible to see how cars have been transformed over the years, working in tandem with the insurance industry.
Mike Chung:That's in Charlottesville Virginia.
MIchel Leonard:Charlottesville, Virginia.
Mike Chung:Terrific.
MIchel Leonard:The pictures, mike, that we always see of the dummies being blown up I guess that's the word or compressed, they actually have that. It looks like the Death Star in some ways and literally it's a huge hangarar and the cars are propelled with the same kind of tool that one has on aircraft carriers and they're accelerated and they're propelled and it takes a second. We always see it in slow motion, but it actually is almost impossible, as any accident is, and you can see the difference between similar cars in terms of size and the damage that different types of accidents can do. I have to tell you that after going there, it changed the way that I look at cars and that I purchase cars.
Mike Chung:I can imagine that, and you said III has been around for 60 years. We have. Certainly vehicles have been around for a little bit longer. A little bit, and you talked about some of the historical aspects of how insurance trends are set, or insurance rates rather, and policies and rates are set. Could you tell us a little bit about some of the trends there in terms of how rates are set?
MIchel Leonard:Absolutely so. Insurance is local. The first insurance in the US was famously Benjamin Franklin, and it is still around and we started in our community. So one can think of insurance more as credit unions on the banking side. And we still to this day have mutual companies which are owned by policyholders, and we have publicly traded and we have private carriers. So that local focus, even though now we have nationwide companies and so forth, and by that I mean across the country, there is of course an insurance carrier called nationwide, but I was referring to across the country.
Mike Chung:Sure, like State Farm Allstate the national carriers.
MIchel Leonard:And some of them are our members, and we're very proud of that. But we're regulated at the state level, and that's very different than what's happening with the banks and so many other things. So we're at the state level because of this history in local communities and, as a result of that, we have 50 regulators and there's a national association of insurance commissioners. In some states, Mike, those commissioners are elected, and in some states they're appointed. In some states they are cabinet-like positions. So even if they may be appointed, they are still part of the administration, and there are some states where they are entirely part of the professional. I don't want to call it bureaucracy, but you know, et cetera, et cetera. So it's a very different environment and, of course, some of these offices are very small, a few people, and some of them such as California, not surprisingly can have hundreds of people, and so that's the context there. So each state will look at how to set rates and in order to be an insurance company selling, offering products in a state, you need to be approved by the state and you need to be admitted that's the term we use and as a result of that, you can operate in the state and then you have to negotiate your rates. So now we're getting. That was the macro kind of, you know the the the framework there. And how do we go, as an industry, from a data standpoint, to set rates? Well, first, each company, each line, needs to be secure in terms of paying claims, and so if you are a nationwide company, you you need to make sure, regardless of being across the country, you need to make sure that if you're offering in Louisiana, if you're offering in Florida, and if you're offering homeowners and auto insurance, you need to make sure that in Florida, your auto insurance itself, from what we call an actuarial, statistical standpoint because actuaries are the ones that work with regulators to look at those rates we need to make sure that it's settled. So it's not the case that if there's a state that has a very high, very low let's say lower rates, that they're subsidizing another state. You really need so big picture here Now, and home orders are very regulated when it comes to sending rates.
MIchel Leonard:There are certain criteria that we're allowed to use. There are certain criteria that we're not allowed to use, and the anchor for all of this is that the term or the sentence, the phrase that we use is, it has to be actually sound. So what that means is that whatever factor we bring in, whatever increase, sometimes decreases, but normally increases in premium and so forth. Keeping up with inflation has to be demonstrated in the data itself. Which are some challenges with that and especially with global warming and so forth extreme weather events but that's a different part of the conversation. So we look at someone's record when it comes to their own driving patterns. We also look at factors such as where you live. Let me rephrase this we look at the patterns in the communities and so forth. But that's where it interfaces with being very mindful of equity, making sure that these are statistically sound, but also that they don't overlap with other considerations that we may not want to get close to and so forth.
MIchel Leonard:So you know banking many, many decades ago there was the issue of redlining. Obviously, that's not something we do. That's not something anyone wants to do. So we look very carefully and we work with our regulators very closely to make range that we get point by point. Regulators will authorize us to look at this data and first and foremost, it's the driving record, but there are also factors. You know this is a problem. There's actually the color of your car. There is statistically demonstrated fact that if you have a white car versus a red car, you may not be in collision as much. Now you see that's interesting here and I'm going to stop on that. But is it because the car is red versus white or is it because someone who buys the car one versus the other? We don't care about that. Economists like me, we care about that. Data scientists, it's a bit different Actuaries, they want to see if it's in the data.
Mike Chung:Whatever the reason, Okay, so really great overview and if I may just ask one kind of clarifying question, so when you said that say a national provider, it really needs to be proven at the state level that the funds are there to pay claims. So I think about hurricanes in Florida, homeowners insurance policies going up in Florida, and that's certainly it's been in the national news. But an insurance provider, if they have coverage across many states, they cannot dip into a non-Florida state to pay Florida claims. Am I hearing that correctly?
MIchel Leonard:That is correct. Now there are layers of complexity on that. First, but let's go into a little bit of the risk of being technical. If you are with a state farm, an AIG, it's actually written on a specific paper that's the expression in the industry. So that paper sometimes you'll get your policy and you'll see written on great mountains something and something. It's not the same name as because in these funds, these entities is where they need themselves to be rated a certain way. They need to be financially solvent on their own and we work very closely with regulators to set these actual reserves and the funds in those, the monies in those funds, are invested very prudently. So, for example, if someone is retiring, we hear about 60% bonds, 40% equity, et cetera. These funds just to give your audience a sense of it, it's 20% max on average in equity and 80% 75% in bonds.
Mike Chung:So we're very prudently managed and then there's a conversation, mike, with the regulators about what is prudent, about the impact of trends, deteriorating, improving trends, but also of events that are, overall, not just cyclical but are worsening or improving. That makes a lot of sense because, from a claims payout perspective, you want to be able to access those funds and rely on them to grow at a steady rate. To be able to access those funds and rely on them to grow at a steady rate, it's not like they're going in high risk high risk funds or cryptocurrency or something like that.
MIchel Leonard:Industry does not, do. You know? Sometimes we get questions about hedge funds and the likes, and maybe just 1% or so you know sometimes areas, but overall the the you know at one point no longer the case, because it's changed a bit. The insurance industry was the biggest owner, the biggest investor, in municipal bonds. At one point we were some of the largest investors in real estate. That's why big buildings and so forth because you have a large building, you can have rent and that pays your liability in the simplest form over time. Now there's a lot of financial instrument bonds are more liquid and so forth, but again, the industry has a significant amount of assets under management. It's actually the largest as a category. It's the largest investor institutional capital in the US and in the world, because everything is insured. Therefore, those amounts are put aside in a very prudent way so that they're accessible and they are regulated and so forth.
Mike Chung:In that regard, that makes a lot of sense. Thanks for that background and answering my question. And then the second thing that I thought of as you were talking, say, for the auto insurance you mentioned, where you live, or the surroundings, and certainly urbanicity, things like that can make sense from a how much am I paying as a policy holder? And I can imagine where, perhaps in the quote unquote, old days, where there might have been stereotypes on oh, you're a 18 yearyear-old driver, of course you're going to be more risky, and there's a lot of things that are, shall we say, taboo for lack of a better word where you cannot set rates based on what might be preconceived notions, stereotypes.
MIchel Leonard:Illegal, not even taboo.
Mike Chung:Illegal because not only is it illegal, but also, one would argue, unethical, exactly, and when you said that it needs to be borne out in the data, that certainly makes a lot of sense. So I'm thinking about the new data that are available, whether it's telematics data. Tell me a little bit about some of the new technical developments, if you will, and how insurance organizations your organization considers those in rate setting and the like.
MIchel Leonard:It's very interesting in that and I just want to go back to that the primary driver of rates no pun intended is someone's driving record. And then there are demographics. Those demographics are fact-based and some demographics cannot be used and they can also be back-engineered through other forms of data. Now you've mentioned about where one lives. I want to really caveat the way I said that, because that would be redlining. So that's not that. But what's interesting is that when it comes to telematics, when it comes to what we're referring to as risk-based pricing and the industry has always been, and I'll talk maybe about the Uber case a little bit but we have data now that will say how much someone drives. We have data that can show whether one drives safely or not. We have. So let's just, in the most simple form, say I only drive to work and from work, or I we were talking earlier before going on AirBahn. I'm in New York, just north of the city, and my profile, now that I've moved out of New York City into the suburbs and the exurbs, what I have in the mountains is very different. I take my car sometimes once a week, literally, and so forth. Now the average number of miles per year is something that's taken into account, but not as significantly as the industry and regulators and consumers and insureds are looking for. So we haven't as an industry. We're looking at telematics. We are, but right now it's a plus, it's not something that's as central, because one of the challenges there, mike, is that it needs to be actually sound and actually in the data. So suddenly we have this new data coming in and how do we reconcile it with trends that we had before? So we're building history.
MIchel Leonard:You know one story I like to say. I was a plug-in plates, big insurtech and other sorts of technology incubator on the West Coast, very large, one of the largest, and there was a panel on insurance and on insurtech and on telematics and these folks it was a bit of a shark tank and they had this fantastic technology natural language processing, nlp. They would recognize the voice. So they would say in the voice, do you love your car or not? And the argument was that if you love your car, you're probably going to be careful with your car and that's true, logical and so forth. And they were talking about all the NLP and so forth and I thought that everyone was, yay, this is fantastic. And I just said well, that's all great, but regulators are never going to allow that, for good reason. We can understand that as well. But so this is just an example of some technologies we don't want to start using. And then there's these opportunities. And yeah, I'll just stop here and let you comment.
Mike Chung:That makes a lot of sense because I think I, as well as many people, they've downloaded an insurance app to track driving behavior and could that lower insurance rates, and I think it's a step in the right direction.
Mike Chung:And I know that the main things that were being looked at were acceleration, heartbreaking speed and, say, nighttime driving, which to me makes sense from a leading indicator for potential for accidents. And I think about if I were to go back and do a PhD because I've driven and lived in suburban urban areas. I think about the things that are not measured, that would, of course, have to go through regulatory approval. So I'm a little bit on a soapbox, so please bear with me, but the data that could be recorded. So I'm thinking, say, blind spot monitors or cameras to sense how far a vehicle is from you, because things that aren't really being recorded, such as if somebody cuts you off, if the person in front of you stops suddenly, you're following distance things that could possibly be measured maybe aren't measured, but perhaps there is a future where these types of data can be measured more closely. Perhaps there is a future where these types of data can be measured more closely, regulated, and perhaps, you know, tell a little bit more of the story in terms of a driver history perspective.
MIchel Leonard:There's so much to unpack in what you said, but I'm going to start with one of the challenges with this data. Everyone wants to get a discount or rebate. We don't like those terms, by the way, but I'll just use them colloquially here but that also means some people will pay more. Now we're looking at who's a better driver, but in order to get a discount to the better drivers, it also means that there may be all loss being equal.
Mike Chung:Yeah, like a zero-sum game basically.
MIchel Leonard:And we're not going there at this point as an industry Gotcha, and that's really when there'll be a moment there of truth seeing how will people be comfortable with that? Will folks be comfortable with that, and where does it stop? I mean, I'm a data person and I'm all. But already cars monitor most of that. It's quite incredible. Folks don't fully realize. But your car, the company knows where your car is all the time, whoever you know.
MIchel Leonard:Traditionally it used to be only more high-end vehicles, but today it's the case. I have my app, I have a Subaru because I'm in the mountains and they're great cars for that. I'm allowed to say that and we did fine. I just got it. So you know you're going to hear me talking about my Subaru, but I can tell where my car is at any given time. Well, there's privacy issues there. I mean we know that in smart homes and so forth, a big in more recent years it's become a potential source of harassment Folks being able to get into that, spouses and divorces it's actually quite concerning. So how much data are we already sharing and how much of that could be leveraged Now?
Mike Chung:so there are two issues there there's privacy, there's disclosure and then, of course, there's the legal underwriting framework that we were referring to, and it made me think about insurance fraud, and then you also talked about rate trends in terms of availability and affordability.
MIchel Leonard:So it's a little bit scattershot in terms of topics, but it also sometimes causes issues. And again, going back to our sister organization, the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, when a lot of the beeps came up the blind spots and so forth, the technology was such that at first it was disruptive and what we saw when some of these technologies were adopted was that they were actually causing also accidents. So the distractive nature of that. Now folks are becoming more used to them. So, but that impact there was an unexpected consequence about some of that. You may notice now that the airbags will not deploy or will not be activated if someone is not on the seat. Many years ago they were all activated and so forth. That's because, also, we've looked at the data and we've determined that if the seat is empty, having the airbag deploy is actually counterproductive in terms of protection and so forth. So the point was there's a lot of data that we can mine and so forth, but it comes back to the rate and it comes back also to are people comfortable with it when speaking with regulators.
MIchel Leonard:Some of these are small offices, as I've mentioned. Some of them have hundreds of people. But at the end of the day, this is a public good. Insurance is required and people need to understand it. So if we make it as data scientists, as economists, as actuaries too complicated, it's no longer transparent. So there's a give and take also between the accuracy, the precision of risk pricing and common sense in terms of being able to get it.
MIchel Leonard:Folks will understand driving at night. Folks will understand, as you were saying, having a garage for your car. But going into the minutia of the blind spot versus a blind spot that's like a foot or two I don't know how they're measured versus a bigger one. Going into the minutia of accelerating, decelerating folks may have different views on that defensive driving and so forth. So we also, at the end of the day, not only does it need to be legal, always ethical equitable is a term we use but also transparent. And you know I'm a modeler, I'm an economist by training and a data scientist and I always say we don't want black boxes. You know like you want people, especially with these public goods. Again, because insurance is in the way of public good, we want folks to be able to have on-demand pricing, if you will for okay, do you want to drive 120 miles an hour?
Mike Chung:Click this button and you can pay that much more, because mathematically we have it figured out. And to your point about is that ethical? Is that right? That certainly brings up a lot of interesting questions.
MIchel Leonard:And also are people willing to buy for that product? I love the idea of paying less and committing to driving my car only on certain roads. I would do it, but what if suddenly there is I need to go to the hospital? What if suddenly it's more in the margin? Hospital is probably a clear-cut case, but what if suddenly so? How does that impact behavior? Probably a clear-cut case, but what if suddenly so? How does that impact behavior? And do we, as insurance companies, want to become part of that decision influence?
Mike Chung:Because it could be a friend that needs to go to the hospital and they reached out to you. So many scenarios we can't necessarily see.
MIchel Leonard:Exactly. Oh, I'm not comfortable because I've reached my 100 miles of insurance and then the person will not go to the hospital, and let's say that those are exactly the kind of unintended consequences and impact on behavior we need to think about. But it's very interesting what you said and I want to use the Uber example. So when Uber and other companies such as Lyft and so on, the ride share, it's someone's car. That's still the essence of it, whether it's Uber or another one which is generically someone's personal car. Now there's personal auto insurance and there's commercial auto insurance. What is in?
MIchel Leonard:Once you're in, you're using your personal car to generate income. That should be a business policy, an insurance, a commercial auto. So it was a challenge originally. You're using your personal car to generate income. That should be a business policy, an insurance, commercial auto. So it was a challenge originally for and as it became more and more common, carriers had to start looking into it and the solution was actually quite innovative and maybe in a way surprising, when one thinks sometimes of insurance companies being very conservative, very traditional, and we actually are at the forefront of change in technology adoption.
MIchel Leonard:So if you are in a car ride uh, environment, when the app, whichever one the driver uses, is on, it switches insurance policy so automatically and that's the monitoring. So you were talking earlier about monitoring and so forth. So there are hybrid policies that will have personal, auto and then the commercial component Obviously. But one needs to understand that most likely in that specific case, if you take on additional liability and so forth, sometimes commercial may have less of a risk profile, but in that specific case, just by virtue of using it more and more, and some of it because one can do a ride share type once a week as a driver, ones can do it much more, so that you actually in that case will pay based on the amount of miles that is driven as a ride share business. And I think that speaks as an example very much to what you were mentioning earlier, being very granular in terms of pricing.
Mike Chung:That makes a lot of sense and I think kudos to your industry to have the kind of the consumer, the user, in mind, from a simplicity perspective, because if it's too complicated to your point, whether I as an individual policy purchaser or say me hypothetically as moonlighting for Uber and Lyft if it's too clunky, it's just going to be hard. And that brings me to the second thing I wanted to highlight where we have the technology and I was reading in the newspaper about this recently and in grocery stores, kind of changing prices for things that are on the shelf, because the technology, the data are there, but is it going to be embraced by consumers or will it even be fair? And by extension, I can see where auto insurance policies, with all that data, if it were allowed, you could arguably change your policy, you know, change the rates at a more frequent cadence than every six months or a year.
MIchel Leonard:Which certainly is not desirable. When we come down, it's a required product. We want to make sure that folks can budget with a certain degree of certainty, that folks are able to have a sense of what their insurance will be, and maybe this is a good time to segue into that. But not only are rates set in an actually sound way with some of the rules we've been mentioning, but also every time there's an increase, it needs to be approved in conversation with the regulator. And in recent years I was just looking at some of the data that my colleague put together we know that homeowner's insurance and auto insurance has gotten much more expensive. I'm just going to pull up here in front of me In 2024, the average increase nationwide has been about 1% to 10%, 11% to 14%, and that is after several years. In the last 10 years we've had three years of double-digit increases.
Mike Chung:This is automotive insurance policy, yes, personal, and apples to apples with the same liability and coverage, and so forth. Exactly. So 10% to 14% in 2024 and following several years of double digit growth.
MIchel Leonard:And that is to maintain our ability to continue pain. So a few things happen driving that During COVID. Folks, we drove less, all things being equal, and the roads were emptier, all things being equal. So we, a lot of folks, started driving faster and also not on the same routes that we normally would do in the morning, commuting etc, dropping the kids up, etc. But there weren't that many cars around. So what we saw during COVID was that severity, ie the impact of the accident, increased. Folks were driving faster, frequency, the number of times that these happened accidents, collisions and so forth went down and they kind of compensated for one another. However, replacement costs and I'll get to that in a second went up. Now we call those adverse or positive developments.
MIchel Leonard:After COVID, what happened is that and I'm certainly that speaks to me, that's what happened to me we continued to drive faster and I don't drive fast, I'm actually very boring when it comes to driving but as a whole, we continued to drive faster, but now there were more cars, so severity and frequency both went up. It was actually I think it was 2023 or 2024 was the first year in 30 years where overall quality of driving, the number of accidents per mile and so forth. Safety overall deteriorated in the US nationwide. That had never happened to have that in many years and that was largely because of these driving patterns. Now, as an industry, we never thought we didn't know if this was ever going to go away. This was a reversal of data-driven no pun intended data-driven and thankfully it has reverted back to the mean of now once again having improvement, uh, where we're continuing to every year. But that that was unexpected. So that drove some of the cost because we had, state by state, remember, line by line insurance, line by insurance line, we had to make sure that we are actually sound that's the term we use actually sound.
MIchel Leonard:Then something else happened, driving those costs. It had to do with replacement costs and we all experienced inflation, but auto parts and auto labor was especially hit by that. So one of the things that we do at the Triple I is that we try to explain what goes into premium, what it pays for and so forth. And when you think, when one thinks about your home and your car, and what we insure, what we repair, rebuild and replace, as we say, a lot of that is what was impacted the most by the inflation of the last six or seven years. If we're looking at homes lumber at one point the two by four went from two bucks to $15. If we're looking at labor for autos, it went from about 20 to 30, depending on the profession to it doubled in some cases. There was a time where used cars were 40%, 60%, 70% more expensive. Used cars are very sensitive to economic downturns, so when there's a downturn people don't buy new cars, so they go to used cars and they go up. It's very much price to market mark to mark. One would say. So those elements and those replacement costs we estimated at the IIII that they were 40% year over three years at one point. So even looking at these consecutive years of increases, we did the math and we absorbed about half of those costs when it comes to that. So it hasn't been a good time in many ways to be in the industry.
MIchel Leonard:Again, I'm looking at what we call the combined ratio. So the combined ratio is how much money we pay for each dollar that we get in. So it's the reverse than a grade. You want to have a high grade in school, you want to have 100% the combined ratio. If you're 101, 102%, it means you're paying more, it means you're losing money as an insurance carrier and, of course, it needs to, over time, average out and it needs to, over time, generate what we call a reasonable profit. What is that? In our industry, working with regulators, that's traditionally a few percent one, two, three, four, five and it needs to average out to that two or three percent. So, again, very conservative.
MIchel Leonard:That's not the way insurance companies make the bulk of their profit.
MIchel Leonard:Some of them are mutuals, some of them are non-profit, but those that, at the end of the day, most insurance companies are in business. They need to make a profit. The same way banks and manufacturers and so forth. But the way we make the largest part of our income is not from this one or 2% underwriting. It is from assets under management and I was mentioning that earlier. So, but if we're looking at the combined ratios in many, in many years, where are my combined ratios? So we've been above 100 for the from 2022, 2023, 2024, above In 2022, 111. So that meant that we were paying 11% more than where we were coming in. So significant losses the last time as an industry, in the last I'm looking at 2015 till now, 2015 above 100. Every year there is above 100, except 2020 and 2021, which is when COVID, those years when folks were less. But that gives you a sense there of you know, the margins are very thin on underwriting because, again, it is a public good it's required, we're regulated, et cetera.
Mike Chung:Right, and I see a lot of other factors contributing to this advanced materials, advanced technologies, in addition to the sort of regular costs of doing business, whether labor or inputs, going up, but I'm thinking the technology that is in vehicles. So what do you see in the future? Are we going to continue this upward trend of replacement?
MIchel Leonard:So it's very interesting. Over 50 years, cars in general have increased less than inflation. Now what's changed significantly is that cars used to be different parts and still parts, but we used to be able to repair much more than replace. And now, because of the technology and because of the way cars are built, because they're safer as well, so now cars will compress more easily to absorb the impact. That means that the car will be total much more rapidly. So that's a factor for us. If we're looking at an example that all of us who are non-technical will understand the headlights. You used to be able to change the light bulbs, or if you had a cracked headlight. Now it's a part of the car. It's a significant cost and if we add up the cost of every single component, the car would be a multiple of its price. So we're in a situation where the calculus of when a car is total versus when it should be repaired has changed drastically. So that's also a significant change in our long-term actual assumptions.
Mike Chung:Fascinating. It's been such a great conversation with you, michel. Is there anything else you'd like to add for our listeners that perhaps we haven't covered yet, as we wrap up?
MIchel Leonard:No, I think this was a great conversation. I hope I made sense and I hope it was helpful.
Mike Chung:Very much so and, if I may, just a kind of a personal question thinking about vacation spots, types of food you like to serve at a dinner party, is there anything that comes to mind in terms of where you might like to take your family for vacation or foods you like to serve with your friends?
MIchel Leonard:Oh gee, when's the last time I took a vacation? I'm in the mountains. I just go out every day and I enjoy the mountains. And I don't drive. That's one thing. I'm not a big driver.
Mike Chung:Okay, well, thank you so much for joining our podcast, michelle. I hope it was enjoyable. It was as enjoyable for you as it has been for me. I really appreciate your insights and to all of our listeners. Thank you so much for joining us for this episode. Be sure to hit the like and subscribe button and we will see you in the next episode. Have a great day, everybody. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of Auto Care On Air. Make sure to subscribe to our podcast so that you never miss an episode. Don't forget to leave us a rating and review. It helps others discover our show. Auto Care On Air is proud to be a production of the Auto Care Association, dedicated to advancing the auto care industry and supporting professionals like you. To learn more about the association and its initiatives, visit AutoCareorg.
Description
When you open that auto insurance renewal notice and see your premium has increased yet again, what factors are actually driving that change? In this eye-opening conversation, Michel Leonard, Chief Economist and Data Scientist at the Insurance Information Institute (III), takes us behind the scenes of how insurance rates are determined.
Insurance might seem mysterious, but Leonard breaks down the actuarial science in refreshingly clear terms. As he explains, your rates aren't set arbitrarily, they're calculated based on statistical data that must prove the connection between risk factors and claims. The industry term is "actuarially sound," meaning any factor used to determine your premium must be demonstrably supported by data. And contrary to popular belief, having a red car doesn't automatically mean higher rates!
The conversation takes a fascinating turn when examining recent trends in auto insurance. Following COVID, an unexpected phenomenon occurred: people continued driving faster even as roads filled back up, leading to 2023 becoming the first year in three decades where overall driving safety deteriorated nationwide. Combined with supply chain disruptions that sent replacement costs soaring by 40% over three years, it's created the perfect storm for premium increases.
Leonard also offers insights into how modern vehicle technology impacts insurance. Today's vehicles incorporate sophisticated systems that, while making cars safer, also make them significantly more expensive to repair or replace. Something as simple as a headlight is now an integrated system rather than an easily replaceable bulb.
Whether you're curious about how telematics might change insurance pricing in the future, why insurance is regulated at the state level, or simply want to understand the factors affecting your own premium, this conversation provides the context you need to make sense of an essential financial product that touches all our lives.
To learn more about the Auto Care Association visit autocare.org.
To learn more about our show and suggest future topics and guests, visit autocare.org/podcast