Six Forces Reshaping Independent Auto Repair

Growth Headlines And A Reality Check

Welcome to Auto Care on Air, a candid podcast for a curious industry. I'm Stacey Miller, Vice President of Communications at the Auto Care Association, and this is Traction Control, where we chat about recent news from the global to the local level and what it may mean to the industry featuring guests on the front lines. Let's roll. The light duty automotive aftermarket is projected to grow 5.2% this year. That is amazing. But let's make sure we actually talk to the people manufacturing the parts, moving inventory, writing estimates, or turning wrenches. And the mood can be a bit more complicated. Parts costs do remain exposed to trade policy. Modern repairs are increasingly depending on software access. And shop work is also increasing, right? There's more cars on the road, people are keeping their cars longer, which is causing an influx in our bays. And a new wave of environmental rules may change who is responsible for a product long after it leaves the shelf. So, yes, the aftermarket is growing, but the more important question is who will actually be able to participate in that growth? Today we're looking at six developments shaping the business right now: federal momentum on rate to repair, uncertainty surrounding North American trade, the difference between market growth and real business health, the growing programming burden inside of independent shops, the technician capacity problem, and the quiet rise of extended producer responsibility laws. So

Right To Repair Meets Federal Momentum

our first headline is that right to repair has momentum, but the details really matter. Let's begin with right to repair, because the issue has moved beyond an industry argument and into a much more visible federal policy conversation. So if you missed it, in June, the White House issued a memorandum titled Lowering the Cost of Living by Promoting the Freedom to Fix. It directed federal agencies to identify actions that could address repair restrictions and reduce costs for consumers. That matters because right to repair is now being discussed not only as a technical access issue, but as a household affordability and competition issue. Congress has also moved. The House Energy and Commerce Committee advanced the Motor Vehicle Modernization Act of 2026 by a vote of 48 to 1. That package includes automotive right to repair provisions based in part on the repair agreements that have governed access for conventional vehicles. That is real momentum, but momentum and a complete solution are not the same thing. The central question is whether federal policy will protect access for the vehicles arriving tomorrow, not just preserving a framework developed for the vehicles of yesterday. A modern repair can require far more than a service manual and a scan tool. It can require wireless vehicle data, secure authentication, software pairing, remote commands, cloud-based diagnostics, and permission to activate a replacement component. If the law protects traditional diagnostic information, but leaves those newer pathways under manufacturer control, independent repairs may technically have a right to repair while lacking a practical way to complete the job. This is why Autocare continues to press for enforceable protections covering all vehicle systems. The political opening is significant. And we thank Donald Trump for his leadership on Right to Repair and Dr. Dunn's leadership on the Repair Act. The task now is making sure that the outcome is technologically relevant and enforceable. And we really finish that job that the memorandum has set forth. Our second

USMCA Uncertainty And Tariff Shockwaves

headline has to deal with USMCA and tariffs and how uncertainty is becoming an operating cost. And for the aftermarket, uncertainty itself has a price. The 2026 review of the United States Mexico-Canada agreement has placed automotive rules of origin and regional supply chains back under the microscope. At the same time, the administration has continued using tariffs and vehicle-related duties as leverage in broader trade disputes. So why does that matter to the autocare industry? Well, a parts journey is rarely as simple as it was made here and it was sold there. Raw material may come from one country, a subcomponent may be produced in another. Final assembly, packaging, distribution may each happen someplace else. So some products can cross a North American border more than once before it ever reaches a repair facility. When duty treatment changes or might change, businesses have to make decisions before they know the final rules. Do you buy more inventory? Do you change a supplier? Do you reprice the catalog? Do you absorb a cost temporarily? Pass it through immediately. Each choice can carry risk. And there's also a consumer consequence, right? When prices rise, vehicle owners don't stop having worn breaks, failed sensors, or leaking pumps, right? They're gonna delay that repair, reduce the scope, choose a lower priced option, or put the expense on their credit card. So trade policy really travels all the way from a customs classification to a safety decision at the service counter.

Market Growth Versus Business Health

Our third news story is about how the market is growing, but what kind of growth is it? The 2026 joint channel forecast projects 5.2% growth in the US light-duty automotive aftermarket this year. It also projects that the market will exceed $500 billion by 2029. The broader autocare industry, including medium and heavy duty, is for grass to grow 5.4% in 2026 and reach $676.5 billion in 2029. Those are really strong numbers and they reflect durable demand and aging vehicle populations and the essential nature of maintenance and repair. Americans depend on their vehicles, and those vehicles have to be kept in service. But sales growth does not automatically mean every business is healthier, right? Revenue can rise because shops complete more work. It can also rise because labor, parts, insurance, rent, equipment, and software also costs more. There's a whole environment around this. So consider a repair order that is 8% higher than it was a year ago. If the part costs more, technician pay has increased, the shop added another software subscription, and the procedure takes longer, the higher ticket may not produce a higher margin. Growth at the industry level can coexist with compression at the business level. And that distinction matters for how we talk about the forecast. The number is not merely a scoreboard, it's an invitation to ask where does the growth originate and where does that value really land? The risk is assuming that a rising market lifts every participant automatically. It might not. And businesses still have to translate demand into productive capability and profitable work.

Programming Burden Inside The Repair Bay

Now, our fourth headline is how software is becoming the repair bottleneck. I'm talking about programming and the software divine vehicle. We did some repair shop research that was published back in March, and in case you missed it, it found that roughly half of incoming vehicles require programming. And shops have also described compatibility issues, software bugs, time-intensive procedures, and the costs of keeping tools current. This is a fundamental change in the meaning of a replacement part. Mechanically installing the correct component may no longer finish the repair. And that component may need to be coded, paired, initialized, calibrated, or authorized before the vehicle accepts it or is able to talk to it. So think about that, what that does to a workflow. The shop identifies the failure, looks up the vehicle, sources the part, and installs it. Then a software process fails because a server is unavailable, an interface behaves differently than expected, or maybe a subscription doesn't include the required function. The vehicle is occupying a bay, the technician's time is tied up, and the customer hears that a seemingly straightforward repair might take longer. So for consumers, the problem appears as time and costs, but for a repair facility, it appears as a non-billable diagnostic effort, tool duplication, interrupted workflow, and sometimes a referral to a different facility. For the industry, it is evidence that control of software functions can shape competition just as powerfully as control of physical parts. This is where the operational story reconnects with the right to repair, right? I know what you were thinking. Vehicle data access is not an abstract policy debate when a paid-for component cannot be activated without permission from the outside shop. The winners in this environment are going to be the ones that combine technical training, reliable repair information, and current tools and disciplined workflow. We see a lot of shops in the supply chain doing exactly this. But fair competition still requires that qualified independent businesses have a workable path to the necessary functions.

Technician Capacity Becomes The Ceiling

Our fifth news story is that technician availability may be becoming a capacity ceiling. The technician workforce, this subject is often described as a recruiting shortage. And I wonder if that framing might be too narrow. There was a survey of nearly 700 repair professionals, and it found that 59% said that the technician shortage had a high or moderate impact on their business. No surprise. Respondents identified low compensation and a negative perception of the industry as the leading contributing factors. That should influence the conversation, right? If compensation and perception are causes, the solution cannot be limited to just telling more people that automotive careers exist. We have to show as an industry that our careers offer modern facilities, cutting-edge training, professional management, continuing education, really amazing working conditions, and good tools and a visible path to higher responsibility and pay. So this technician shortage obviously has an immediate business effect. A shop may have vehicles waiting, parts available, and customers approving the work, yet lack enough skilled hours to complete it. Or they're looking to put a succession plan in place and there's no one to hire to bring into that shop. At that point, labor is not just an HR issue, it's a ceiling on revenue, customer satisfaction, and the mobility kind of of these communities that they serve. So there are encouraging developments, such as the workforce Pell Grants, which can expand financial assistance for approved short-term technical programs. AutoCare has also launched the tools for tomorrow's technicians grant program to help high school automotive programs address outdated or limited equipment. And that's offered by our tool and equipment community. The pipeline matters, but filling the pipeline without improving retention is like adding coolant to a system that still leaks. Speaking from experience, shops in the wider industry have to develop people, equip them, and give them reasons to stay. And some of the happiest and most engaged shops that I've had the pleasure of meeting and seeing with on the shop floor are all really giving praise to those programs that are giving them all the training that they need to stay up to date and to service all the vehicles that are coming into their vase.

EPR Rules Move Into Daily Compliance

Our final story on this episode of traction control is the compliance story hiding in plain sight because it's less visible to the average driver, but it may become increasingly important to manufacturers, importers, and distributors. And that is extended producer responsibility or EPR. You've heard us talk about it here before. EPR policies shift more responsibility for a product's full life cycle onto the businesses that place it into the market. Depending on the jurisdiction and product category, that can involve collection, recycling, reporting fees, or safe disposal of those materials. And the concept is straightforward, right? The responsibility for a product should not end at the point of sale. The implementation is where it becomes complicated. So the aftermarket includes batteries, tires, lubricants, fluids, filters, electronics, packaging, and thousands of other products with very different recovery systems and environmental profiles. And a rule designed for one product product category may not translate cleanly to another. And a growing state-by-state patchwork can force businesses to track different definitions, deadlines, and reporting requirements across multiple markets. It is becoming very confusing. So in response, Autocare expanded its EPR Resource Center this year to help businesses understand and prepare for these emerging requirements. And it's an important signal. EPR is moving from a sustainability discussion into an operational compliance issue. So you're going to hear a lot from us on this this year and in the future as we continue to help our members navigate this. The policy opportunity here is to strengthen responsible collection and recycling while recognizing systems that already work. The policy risk is creating duplicative fees, conflictive requirements that are creating all of these administrative burdens that fall disproportionately on smaller businesses and really all businesses across the autocare ecosystem. So

The Big Theme Is Access

if you made it to the end, step back from these six stories that have been happening this summer and look at the common theme that appears, which I think is access. Access to repair data and software functions, access to predictable parts supply, access to affordable repair choices, and access to trained people, and access to compliance systems that businesses can realistically navigate. The aftermarket's projected growth is real and the opportunity is substantial, but growth alone does not guarantee competition. Our industry's future will depend on whether independent businesses can obtain the tools, the information, the products, and the talent required to serve the next generation of vehicles. That is why this moment matters. Decisions being made now in Congress, federal agencies, trade negotiations, classrooms, and shop management meetings, these will all determine who can repair a vehicle, how much that repair costs, and how many choices the owner retains. So here's the question I'm gonna leave you with. The aftermarket is growing, but are we building the conditions that allow the entire independent industry to grow with it? Thanks for tuning in to another episode of Auto Care on Air. Make sure to subscribe to our podcast so that you never miss an episode. And don't forget to leave us a rating and review that helps others discover our content. Auto Care on Air is a production of the Auto Care Association, dedicated to advancing the autocare industry and supporting professionals like you. To learn more about the association and its initiatives, visit autocare.org.