Joint Powertrain Trends and Outlook
2026 Joint Powertrain Trends and Outlook
The Auto Care Association and MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers, in collaboration with Strategy&, the strategy division of PwC, commissioned the 2026 Joint Powertrain Trends and Outlook Forecast to provide members with the most comprehensive look yet at the evolving electric vehicle and hybrid aftermarket landscape. The 2026 report highlights how the U.S. BEV market is evolving more slowly than China and Europe, the growing emphasis on more affordable EV models, and the increasing role of hybrids in the transition to electrification. It also explores shifting consumer preferences, total cost of ownership, and the expanding availability of hybrid models, providing updated data and forecasts to help aftermarket professionals prepare for what's ahead. Finally, the report discusses how ADAS and autonomous driving technologies are progressing, including the economics of robotaxis versus personally owned vehicles
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All employees of Auto Care Association member companies are provided with a digital copy of the 2026 Joint Powertrain Trends and Outlook Forecast at no cost as a benefit of their membership.
Additional key takeaways:
The U.S. BEV market is evolving far slower than China and Europe.
BEVs are approximately 6% of U.S. new-vehicle sales in the first half of 2026; China is 38% and the European markets are estimated at 23%.
OEMs have recognized that they need to overcome a price barrier and are emphasizing models priced below $45k, where more of new vehicles sales occur. Models under $45k share increased from 14% in 2024 to 24% in 2026.
Hybrids are forecast to capture nearly one-third (32%) of U.S. new-vehicle sales by 2035.
Hybrid share rises from 17% in 2026 to 32% in 2035; BEV’s share increases from 8% in 2025 to 25% in 2035.
The powertrain evolution is no longer simply ICE à BEV; now there is an important hybrid phase before BEV gains prominence.
Despite higher upfront price, 3-yr total cost of ownership is lower for hybrids than their ICE counterparts due to a) lower fuel costs and b) retaining higher residual values.
The number of Hybrid models is expected to triple by 2033, increasing from 37 models in 2025 to 100 in 2030 and 115 in 2033 across plug-ins, range-extended and full hybrids.
Consumers will have a much wider choice in the coming years.
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Combine it with the Joint E-commerce Trends and Outlook Forecast for even more insights into the evolving auto care industry.
